ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНАЯ РОССИЯ
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Post-Asad Syria
Most analysts are worrying about getting Bashar al Assad out of office and out of Syria. What happens after he goes? Post-war transition in Syria will require a massive and complex effort in order to achieve anything like a democratic state. This article analyzes issues likely to arise in achieving the vital components of transition. It starts not with the day after but rather with the desirable end states, which are mutually interdependent and have to be pursued simultaneously: a safe and secure environment, rule of law, stable governance, a sustainable economy, and social well-being. The challenges are daunting, the more so as the violence continues. Preparations should begin right away. Syrians should lead the effort, which is highly context- and path- dependent, but internationals should pitch in, drawing on experience gained in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, and elsewhere |
03 октября 2012
Using history to understand the present can be a useful tool, but it is also a limited one. Historical cases are not identical to contemporary ones, and there is a danger of conflating challenges in such a manner that, rather than illuminating a present challenge, history obfuscates it. This problem tends to be evident in the inaccurate use of analogies by policymakers, commentators, and analysts… Michael J. Williams. Political-Military Lessons from U.S. Operations in Vietnam and Afghanistan
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03 октября 2012
03 октября 2012
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