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3. Can We Estimate the Global Scale and Impact of Illicit Trade?

“Fighting a war” is the longstanding idea of how the problem of illicit markets should be addressed. President Richard Nixon initially coined the term war on drugs during a press conference in 1971, and it has since been adopted for other forms of trafficking such as counterfeiting and so-called modern slavery. But illicit trade is now increasingly characterized as a “whack-a-mole” problem:1 while the trade may decrease following successful law enforcement efforts, it usually resumes after a time or switches to a different illegal commodity. One might note, however, that Darwinian whack-a-mole is the order of the day, as enforcement efforts may have the perverse effect of facilitating the “selection” of the most apt or powerful criminals. According to Nils Gilman’s fourth rule on deviant globalization, “Once a deviant industry professionalizes, crackdown merely promotes innovation.”

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ConvergenceДоклад Комиссии «Круглого стола 12 декабря»
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