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Stephen J. Cimbala
Russia and European Missile Defenses: Misdirection or Self-deception?

The reset concept in the U.S.-Russia relationship sometimes seems on the brink of abandonment, but it could be rejuvenated along with further strategic nuclear arms reductions. Washington and Moscow could rediscover a steadying deterrence through assured retaliation at levels prescribed by New START or lower. A reinvigorated reset could also give new life to NATO-Russian negotiations on eliminating or reducing nonstrategic nuclear weapons based in Europe. Absent momentum there, Russia could repudiate the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and reinstall intermediate- and shorter-range missiles in both Europe and Asia. A further benefit would be substantiating U.S. and Russian reliability in leading toward multilateral nuclear arms reductions. Missile defense factors could be favorably impacted by a robust reset agenda as well

Stephen J. Cimbala
Matrix of Nonlinearity: Minimum Deterrence, Missile Defenses, and Nuclear Arms Reductions

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) could help in the transition from the superpower era of nuclear arms control to the more complex needs of the early 21st century. If U.S.-Russia relations improve, it is more likely that an agreed minimum benchmark will emerge for bilateral and perhaps multilateral negotiations. A U.S.-Russia maximum of 500 or 1,000 deployed long-range nuclear warheads would leave sufficient retaliating warheads to provide deterrence and crisis stability, but the overlap of minimum deterrence and missile defenses is complicated enough to keep negotiators bargaining for years. U.S. interest in reducing nonstrategic nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, and Russia’s wish to rearrange the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, will create other post¬–New START nonlinearity.

Stephen J. Cimbala
Post-stARt,Re-stARt and New stARt

The accomplishment of a post– Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I nuclear arms reduction agreement by Russia and the United States calls to mind a Chinese character that stands for both opportunity and danger. Post-START success opens the door to further reductions in both states’ nuclear arsenals, and it also creates a possible driver for U.S. and Russian leadership on nuclear nonproliferation. Danger lies in the expectation that post-START political or military success follows automatically from good intentions or less frosty diplomatic demarches.
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