The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) could help in the transition from the superpower era of nuclear arms control to the more complex needs of the early 21st century. If U.S.-Russia relations improve, it is more likely that an agreed minimum benchmark will emerge for bilateral and perhaps multilateral negotiations. A U.S.-Russia maximum of 500 or 1,000 deployed long-range nuclear warheads would leave sufficient retaliating warheads to provide deterrence and crisis stability, but the overlap of minimum deterrence and missile defenses is complicated enough to keep negotiators bargaining for years. U.S. interest in reducing nonstrategic nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, and Russia’s wish to rearrange the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, will create other post¬–New START nonlinearity. |
