Tailored deterrence is limited by the assumption that the United States can accurately determine an adversary’s intent and decisively shape it. Despite the unknowable forest of choices an enemy might make, deterrence remains vital to national security; thus tailored deterrence should be transformed to reflect third-wave theory to give policymakers realistic options instead of wishful thinking. Modifications should accept that ambiguity is ubiquitous, recognize the role of the adversary’s interests, and “replace hubris with humility.” A new approach should never forget that adversaries are not inert; thus they may not be susceptible to the decisive influence we imagine we wield. This approach would acknowledge that the Nation can influence the actions of other actors but not compel them