Militaries are understandably fond of measurements. But today’s world calls for getting in other parties’ heads, which is more ambiguous. It is thus the responsibility of strategic planners to seek out the best ways of developing strategic empathy. The military has turned to social scientists, especially anthropologists, to help it grasp the intricacies of the many ways individuals and small groups form values and make decisions. It is now time to plumb the arts and humanities to see how they teach and express imponderables. It is also time to study historical figures who knew their friends and enemies and to adopt their practices. Instead of confronting great volumes of information, the aim should be to sidestep the noise and select the "chunks" of data that apply best. Complete prediction is impossible; yet military planners must try, and they can improve their chances by reconceptualizing how they predict.

Indonesia seems unable to gain control over an ongoing jihad. The effort is complicated by plentiful ungoverned spaces, pockets of isolated and dissatisfied citizens, and a history of religious strife, gang warfare, and ethnic animosity. Washington can help. U.S. forces already engage Indonesia’s forces and communities through a variety of exercises and local projects. More assertive planning and thinking could enhance such engagement and solidify the bilateral relationship. The interagency, and especially the Department of Justice, could foster civilian-military interaction and training through democratic policing. Additionally, community policing could be taught, whereby unarmed civilians would be empowered to keep order in their communities with the help of the national police, strengthening government-community relations. Coordinated bilateral and interdepartmental efforts could save the archipelago from returning to its traditional communal warfare. The emphasis of U.S. training should discourage policing and soldiering along ethnic and religious lines and promote human rights.

The Thirty Years’ War and the Peace of Westphalia, because of their religious overtones, are illuminating for today’s imbroglios in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Some observers believe these regions are reverting to the religious and political chaos that infected Europe in the 16th and 17th centuries. Pakistan is a case in point: religion is used both to substantiate and to supplant civil government, with the latter view becoming more general throughout the Islamic world. This does not necessarily signal the collapse of the Westphalian system and the order it has given the world, but it does put a stress on the long-accepted sanctity of state sovereignty. Yet Pakistan needs to survive as a political entity to ensure international acceptance of its tenuous borders. Europe ultimately rejected religious militancy and moved on; Pakistan will need to do the same. Especially, it must restrain its use of Islam as a policy instrument