The allegation that Osama bin Laden was not apprehended in timely fashion because of insufficient troops deployed to Tora Bora is belied by the experience of a dozen strategic manhunts involving deployment of U.S. forces dating back to 1885-86. In fact, the need for surprise often means smaller forces are the ideal. Moreover, the human terrain is a bigger factor than the physical terrain. The views of the native population shape three variables that largely determine the success of strategic manhunts: human intelligence, help from indigenous forces, and whether the object of the hunt can find sanctuary by crossing a border. These factors were against U.S. forces in December 2001. The key would have been stronger links with Pashtun resources. |