Китайская Народная Республика, как известно, ведет весьма активную политику в Центральной Азии, которая является важнейшим для Поднебесной геополитическим направлением, а также на Кавказе, причем как Южном, так и Северном. Об этих направлениях китайской геополитики имеется целый ряд исследований. Однако до сих пор не рассматривалась политика Поднебесной в Северном Прикаспии.

As it is known the People’s Republic of China carries out rather active policy in the Central Asia, which is very important geopolitical direction for the Celestial, and the Caucasus (both South and North). There are a number of researches devoted to these directions of the Chinese geopolitics. But till now there have been no researches on the policy of the Celestial in the Northern Caspian Sea region. Beijing carries out multi-vector policy in the Northern Caspian Sea region. Meanwhile the relations of China with both Kalmykia and Astrakhan Region have big potential for broadening and deepening. Taking into consideration strategic geographic location of the region, which is a kind of “bridge” between Central Asia and the Caucasus, it can be assumed that the Celestial will continue to deepen the relations with the Northern Caspian Sea region in the future. It is in the interests of both Beijing and the subjects of this region.

Создание зоны свободной торговли на постсоветском пространстве – вполне своевременное решение, позволяющее в обозримом будущем перейти к следующей форме экономической интеграции – Таможенному союзу. В этом отношении следует обратить внимание на то обстоятельство, что весь мир сейчас идет по пути экономической глобализации. Параллельно с этим идут процессы экономической регионализации, благодаря которым были созданы такие структуры, как ЕС, Североамериканская зона свободной торговли и др. Поэтому постсоветский регион не мог остаться в стороне и не иметь подобных структур.

The treaty on creation of a free trade zone between the CIS states which has already been ratified by the National Assembly of Armenia can rightly be called remarkable event. It considerably changes the format of trade and economic relations in the post-Soviet space, because it provides creation of a new ground for trade and economic relations within the framework of the CIS. The new treaty will substitute the system of bilateral treaties and in consequence joint system of trade regime will be formed between the member countries. But the following fact may trigger concern: how the customs fees of the goods imported from some of the CIS countries should be compensated. Do we have the branches which development would earn revenue that allows us cover social and other expenses? Here we should be realistic and form the regional union on the fair grounds. In reality the absence of common border is considered to be a serious obstacle, because there are considerable differences in the aspect of both security and vulnerability.

Настоящая статья подготовлена на основе результатов научного исследования, выполненного в Центре стратегических оценок и прогнозов летом 2012г. Полный текст аналитического доклада доступен в электронном виде на сайте Центра.

Currently there are several different unions of states. While establishing such unions, member states pursue different aims: from financial and economic to military and political ones. For some time the union may exist due to the personal motives of the leaders, common policy and joint military interests. But in mid-term and especially long-term perspectives only the unions which are based on real competitive economy will be consistent enough. That is why for the correct setting of mid-term and long-term prospects of the unions of states, estimation of their financial and economic grounds acquires special topicality